Oceans are changing.

Global climate projections have limitations

Climate modeling is done by public institutions on a global scale: the IPCC report is based in part on a consortium of climate models known as CMIP6. These models, however, are coarse scale models, with pixels of 100km on a side. They also have statistical biases. As such, they can’t accurately project how climate change will impact a specific location.

Precision allows insights

The Ocean Climate experts at Actea combine high resolution ocean observations with the low resolution CMIP6 models using our patent pending statistical algorithms. Actea achieves over 100x the detail of CMIP6 projections and removes the biases. Actea’s projections allow for new questions to be answered. Actea further uses its expertise in marine biology to turn climate projections into actionable insights for fishery and mariculture stakeholders.

For Regulators and Scientists

Actea is a contributor to NOAA’s ACLIM project, evaluating climate impacts on marine fisheries in the Bering Sea, Alaska. Actea produced the statistical downscale included in the Norwegian Miljødirektoratet’s Climate Impact on Important Coastal Water Species. We have also produced non-commercially licensed datasets used by the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans, the Nunatsiavut Nation, the EU FutureMares project, and others. If you are a regulator, scientist, or government agency we can contract to produce and deliver the specific data you need to fulfill your mission. Contact us to discuss your needs further.

For Mariculture

Actea can produce a site-specific analysis tailored to your operation. While the global expected ocean temperature change over this century is 0.6 degrees, we’ve analyzed aquaculture sites where the expected change is over 3 degrees, with extreme events making such sites unusable by the 2040s. Actea can project changes in fish growth rates, baseline mortality, and the risk of mass-mortality events, based on underlying changes to ocean temperature and chemistry.

For Commercial Fishing

Actea can produce an analysis of species availability in the waters you fish over the lifespan of a boat or a processing facility. Our analyses to date indicate that, while some species move out, others are likely to move in. Be ready to pursue an alternative species when the change arrives or choose to focus on a species likely to stick around.

For Complex Holdings

Diversification across species and regions can help a portfolio of investments be robust to climate disruption. However, simultaneous mortality events across assets can produce a disastrous drop in cash-flow. Through simulation of multiple possible futures, Actea can model risk correlation within your portfolio and help you optimize geographic and species allocations to minimize disruptions.

Data Validation

We produce climate projections from 1993-2099. We compare the historic portion of our projections against observations. This demonstrates that the climate distribution produced by our system is accurate. We also compute statistical downscales for a variety of different climate models and include future model variance in our analysis. Contact us for more details.